7-18-2012

Syrian general Assef Shawkat (middle) was killed in a bomb attack on the national security building in Damascus. Photograph: Khaled Al-Hariri/Reuters

Defence minister and Assad's brother-in-law among dead 
• Russia says 'decisive battle' is under way
• US defence secretary: Syria is 'spiralling out of control'
• Reports of widespread defections dismissed by regime

The crisis in Syria has reached what appears to be a decisive stage, after key members of the regime were killed in a blast in Damascus. You can read today's earlier live blog here. We're continuing our live coverage on this page – here's what we know so far:

• Four senior members of the Bashar al-Assad's inner circle have been killed in a bomb attack on the national security building in Damascus, in what amounts to a grave crisis for the ruling regime. The blast killed defence minister Dawoud Rajha and his deputy Assef Shawkat - Assad's brother-in-law. Also killer were the interior minister Mohammad Shaar and the assistant vice president, Hassan Turkmani. The blast occurred during a meeting of cabinet ministers and security officials, according to state TV.

• Two groups have claimed responsibility for the explosions. Liwa al-Islam, an Islamist rebel group whose name means "The Brigade of Islam", said on its Facebook page that it "targeted the cell called the crisis control room in the capital of Damascus." The Free Syrian Army also claimed responsibility for the attack, according to spokesman Qassim Saadedine. "This is the volcano we talked about, we have just started," he said. Security sources have blamed the attack on a bodyguard for the regime's inner circle, according to Reuters.

• The US defence secretary, Leon Panetta, says the situation in Syria is "spiralling out of control". He called on the international community to "bring maximum pressure on Assad to do what's right to step down and allow for that peaceful transition" The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov says a "decisive battle" is under way in Syria. A UN vote on the future of its monitoring force in Syria, due to take place today, has been cancelled.

• The Syrian government has vowed to wipe out those responsible for the blast, amid fears of increased bombardment against opposition strongholds. In a statement issued by the military it blamed the attack on "hired hands". It said it was "more determined than ever to confront all forms of terrorism and chop any hand that harms national security".

Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar

Reports differ on the fate of the interior minister.

State TV reported that he had been killed.

The pro-government channel Dounia, denied that he was dead. It reported that he is in a stable condition.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said 'we have long said that the presence of chemical wepaons in syria and the region undermines peace'.

Hassan Turkmani

The former defence minister and was known as the the regime's crisis management chief.

Until his death Turkmani was serving as an assistant to the country's vice president. In his mid-70s, Turkmani was close to the regime and took part in the crackdown against the uprising. Shortly after the revolt began in March last year, Assad sent Turkmani to Turkey for talks with officials there.

Assef Shawkat

Assad's brother-in-law and the deputy head of the armed forces, and his clo...

Shawkat, married to Assad's sister Bushra, was one of the most feared figures in the president's inner circle and had won the support of the clan's influential matriarch, Anisa. He was one of three central figures in the regime crackdown, along with Assad himself and his brother Maher. As Syria's overall security chief, he had key input into all military and intelligence operations. He is known to have survived an attempt to poison him in late May when a cook contaminated food that had been prepared for him and key members of the national security ministry.

1.16pm ET / 6.16pm BST: My colleague Matthew Weaver has been looking at what we know about the four men reported to have been killed or injured today.

Dawoud Rajha

Although he was the defence minister but that did not mean he was the most powerful sec... His identity as a Christian helped the regime present an image of multi-ethnicity.

As is the case in many ministries, there was an Alawite, President Bashar al-Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, in the number two position at defence, and his membership of the family network was far more important than title.

Furthermore, the defence ministry is less powerful than the interior ministry, intelligence service and Maher al-Assad's Republican Guard. But Rajha's presence around the table at the national security council reflected the fact that he wielded real clout in the apparatus.

1.20pm ET / 6.20pm BST: The White House has said violence is not the answer in Syria, but the attack on Assad's inner circle shows "window is closing", Reuters' Matthew Keys reports. A White House spokesman also said it does not know Bashar al-Assad's location.

White House says international community needs to act in a unified way.

White House says it has no information on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad's whereabouts; White House goes on to say the U.S. is closely monitoring Syria's military facilities and believes its chemical stockpile remains under government control.

1.32pm ET / 6.32pm BST: The UN Security Council has delayed a vote on a new Syria resolution until Thursday, in an attempt to get key Western nations and Russia to agree on measures to end the violence, AP report.

The agency says that international envoy Kofi Annan urged the council in New York to delay Wednesday's scheduled vote after the bombing in Damascus killed three members of the Assad regime.

Ambassadors from the five veto-wielding permanent council nations the US, Russia, China, Britain and France met behind closed doors late on Wednesday morning to discuss Annan's request. Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin later told reporters: "A possible vote has been postponed until tomorrow morning."

1.45pm ET / 6.45pm BST: Lina Sinjab, a journalist for the BBC in Damascus, has been out on a government-led tour of the city this afternoon. Sinjab live-tweeted the expedition, and while she wasn't take to "any of the hotspot areas like Midan or the National Security Building", said she and others were able to hear gunfire at points.

"Most areas we visited [most] shops were closed and hardly any movement,"Sinjab tweeted.

"By end of our tour, there was hardly any movement in the streets. ...

2.09pm ET / 7.09pm BST: International humanitarian law advisor Eric Sigmund writes on the American Red Cross blog that there are significant legal ramifications now the conflict in Syria is classed as a full blown civil war – described in legal terms as an "armed conflict not of an international character".

Sigmund says he has been examining the "principles which apply during civil wars like Syria". If reported atrocities can be proven, then they will amount to war crimes and perpetrators will be more exposed to prosecutions, he said.

The Geneva Conventions do not have a lot to say about internal conflicts, since they focus on traditional conflicts between nations. Since Syria has not ratified Additional Protocol II to the Geneva Conventions, which expands the protections during civil war, only Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions applies to the situation in Syria. Common Article 3 provides a minimum set of protections during conflict, mandating, in part, that warring parties treat civilians and all wounded combatants humanely and further that the wounded and sick be provided medical care.

These principles are great in theory but what do they really mean in practice? While it is unclear whether announcing that international humanitarian law applies will change behaviors in Syria, it opens the door for the international community to hold violators accountable for war crimes committed during the conflict. Human rights observers in Syria have estimated the death toll from the conflict to be near 15,000; the majority of which they say are civilians. Reports from human rights organizations also alleged that the regular Syrian military, as well as government sponsored militant groups, have targeted civilians during combat, used children as human shields, and tortured suspected opposition sympathizer.

All of these acts are prohibited by international humanitarian law and, if evidenced, may amount to war crimes prosecutable under international law. The Syrian government denies these accusations.

Hat-tip to the Wall Street Journal's Liz Heron for the link.

An image from video released by the Syrian official news agency SANA purports to show Syrian troops fighting against rebels in the Al-Midan area of Damascus, Syria on Wednesday, July 18, 2012. Photograph: Sana/AP

2.15pm ET / 7.15pm BST: Police in Egypt have fired tear gas at protesters outside the Syrian embassy in Cairo after demonstrators tried to take down its flag, protesters have told AFP.

The protesters later barricaded a main road after some of them threw stones at the riot police, a witness told the agency. The clashes were said to have begun after some of the protesters tried to tear down the embassy's flag.

"We wanted to take down Assad's flag and raise the independence flag. They started shooting tear gas," one protester told AFP.

Syria has no ambassador in Egypt, having recalled him after Egypt recalled its envoy in protest over Assad's crackdown on the uprising against him. Syrian dissidents stormed the embassy in February, ransacking it and setting fire to its ground floor.

2.29pm ET / 7.29pm BST: The cousin of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has said the embattled leader is "not going to step down" and believes that the killing of senior security leaders today is "the start of something very dark".

Speaking to Arabian Business, Ribal al-Assad said the bombing today is "a disaster, I don't know if it's the beginning of the end but I think it's a disaster".

"We're at a huge risk of civil and regional war," he said (the International Committee of the Red Cross has already said it is categorising the conflict as a civil war).

"It's very scary because all sides have arms, all are committed to violence, all sides are committed to winning this conflict and it's going to lead to more bloodshed. I think now we are going to start seeing civil war I think it was just the beginning, I think the number of dead is going to rise."

Ribal al-Assad, heads the London-based Organisation for Democracy and Freedom in Syria and was forced into exile by Bashar's father, told Arabian Business the president will not step down.

You've heard him speak, you've heard Lavrov speak, and he's not going to step down. If he wanted to step down he would have stepped down from the beginning when everybody had asked him to. If he had stepped down and joined the people... and gotten rid of the corrupt people around him, who are dragging the country down that road [of civil war,] we wouldn't have been where we are today.

Today is a complete chaotic scenario with Islamist groups from everywhere, from al-Qaeda, to unknown groups from Iraq and other places, to the Free Syrian Army to people just defending their homes. It's chaotic.

Thanks to Daniel Shane for tweeting me the link.

2.45pm ET / 7.45pm BST: Reuters' Ant De Rosa posts this video of smoke rising over northern Damascus.

The video was uploaded to YouTube today.

3.16pm ET / 8.16pm BST: Dutch journalist Sander Van Hoorn, one of the few journalists still in Damascus, has said people are growing more nervous in the city in the wake of this morning's bombing.

Speaking in a report for Dutch national broadcaster NOS on Wednesday evening, Van Hoorn said the bombing had people in downtown Damascus – which had been seen as relatively safe from conflict – fearful for their safety.

He added that the blast is big blow to al-Assad, "if only to morale".

They are doing everything they can to not make it like that. Swiftly appointing a new minister, projecting an image of unity on state radio and TV, repeating over and over that the Syrian people's unity will only grow because of this, that kind of thing. But this is a major blow.

Only yesterday people in the centre of Damascus felt that events were happening far away from them. Yes, the outskirts were scenes of fighting, they knew that, but for something like this to happen in downtown Damascus…

This citizen journalist image shows burning tires in Damascus, Syria, Wednesday, July 18, 2012. Photograph: Anonymous/AP

Van Hoorn hurried towards the ministry after the blast, he told NOS, but was turned away by military personnel. As he spoke gunfire and explosions could be heard in the background. He said people in downtown Damascus now realise they are not safe from violence.

People are nervous. You can tell. They are constantly checking their phones, calling others to check: how are you, where are you, what are you doing, what rumours are you picking up?

So far people in downtown Damascus believed themselves to be safe. When you heard an explosion, you know it had to be in the outskirts of the city, as that was where all the fighting was taking place. After what happened today, if you hear an explosion, you see people walking outside to check. They realise that now, it could be very close.

Dutch journalist Joris Luyendijk translated Van Hoorn's report for the Guardian.

3.55pm ET / 8.55pm BST: Nearly 100 people were killed on Wednesday in violence across Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Some 16 were killed in Damascus alone, according to the British-based watchdog, while 97 people died across the rest of the country – including 46 civilians, eight rebel fighters and 43 regime troops.

4.14pm ET / 9.14pm BST: The bombing that killed three members of President Assad's inner circle on Wednesday will ensure that Assad's regime "falls very soon", according to the head of the opposition Syrian National Council.

"This is the final phase. They will fall very soon," Abdelbasset Seida told Reuters in an interview in Qatar.

"Today is a turning point in Syria's history. It will put more pressure on the regime and bring an end very soon, a matter of weeks or months."

Seida said that the Assad regime is "very weak at the moment".

"They are confused. This is the final phase. They will fall very soon. If you look at the economic situation, it is a matter of months until they will not be able to pay salaries."

The rest of the Reuters report:

Seida said he did not share fears among some Western leaders that Assad's fall would enflame sectarian conflict in the country and destabilize Syria's neighbors - Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan.

"We've been preparing for the end of the Assad regime for a long time. Our aim is to reach that phase with minimal losses. We have plans on the economic, administrative and social levels, and we are certain we can do it," he said.

4.42pm ET / 9.42pm BST: My colleagues Ian Black and Martin Chulov writethat the attack in Damascus today appeared to be a deadly blow to the heart of the regime – coming after the recent high-level defections of a senior Republican Guard commander and Syria's ambassador to Iraq.

"Syrian state television said foreign-backed 'terrorists' had carried out the attack. The country's armed forces said in a statement that Syria was 'determined to confront all forms of terrorism and chop off any hand that harms national security'," write Ian and Martin.

"The opposition has hit the jackpot," said Nadim Shehadi, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House in London. "The consequences are too big to digest. It may provoke more violence by the regime. Everyone is revising their calculations.

"People will be deciding whether to defect or not and the Russians will be wondering if they have backed the wrong horse," he said.

The attack was claimed by the Free Syrian Army, the main armed opposition group. "God willing, this is the beginning of the end of the regime," its commander, Riad al-Asaad, told AP in a telephone interview from Turkey. "Hopefully, Bashar will be next." An Islamist group called Liwa al-Islam also claimed responsibility.

Syrian state television, which was uncharacteristically quick to report the news, also said the military wouldcall up its reserve forces on Thursday morning. Replacements for the three dead men were quickly announced.

General Fahd Jassem al-Freij, Rajha's replacement, denied reports on Arab satellite television channels about military defections in Idlib and Damascus and explosions at 4th Division HQ.

Read the full news story here.

5pm ET / 10pm BST: That's it for now, but we will continue to update our main news story on developments in Syria. Here's a summary of the day.

• Three senior members of Bashar al-Assad's inner circle have been ki... The blast killed the defence minister, Dawoud Rajha, and his deputy Assef Shawkat - Assad's brother-in-law – as well as the assistant vice-president, Hassan Turkmani. The interior minister, Mohammad Shaar, was wounded. The blast occurred during a meeting of cabinet ministers and security officials, according to state TV.

• People living in downtown Damascus had previously believed themselves to be safe but are now beginning to grow nervous for the first time, according to one report. Dutch journalist Sander Van Hoorn told Netherlands broadcaster NOS ...: "People are nervous. You can tell." He said people now realise fighting is close to the capital.

• Two groups have claimed responsibility for the explosions, the Free Syrian Army – the main armed opposition group, and Liwa al-Islam, an Islamist rebel group whose name means "The Brigade of Islam". Liwa al-Islam said on its Facebook page that it "targeted the cell called the crisis control room in the capital of Damascus." Riad al-Asaad, the FSA's commander, said that "hopefully, Bashar will be next".

• The US defence secretary, Leon Panetta, says the situation in Syria is "spiralling out of control". He called on the international community to "bring maximum pressure on Assad to do what's right to step down and allow for that peaceful transition". Abdelbasset Seida, head of the opposition Syrian National Council, ... today was "a turning point in Syria's history", and said the Assad regime would "fall soon".

• Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov said a "decisive battle" is under way in Syria. Lavrov also made it clear that Moscow would oppose a draft UN security council resolution threatening punishment if Assad did not implement the UN-backed peace plan promoted by Kofi Annan. A UN vote on the future of its monitoring force in Syria, due to take place today, has been cancelled.

• The Syrian government has vowed to wipe out those responsible for the blast, amid fears of increased bombardment against opposition strongholds. In a statement issued by the military it blamed the attack on "hired hands". It said it was "more determined than ever to confront all forms of terrorism and chop any hand that harms national security".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2012/jul/18/syria-...